NOTE: Please read the update and this post. It seems likely that, in fact, the J&J pause had little to no effect on vaccination rates or vaccine hesistancy.
A couple of weeks ago we were arguing about the public effect of the CDC's pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Would it make people more confident in vaccines because it shows that the CDC is really on the job? Or would it make people less confident in vaccines because it shows that they aren't as safe as we thought? Daniel Bier presents this as evidence today:
And yes, the decision to yank J&J’s vaccine was the trigger.
Daily vaccinations were rapidly growing for every demographic under 50, and stable for 50-64, until the FDA’s “pause” (as though they could unclick that button and undo the damage).
They abruptly u-turn: pic.twitter.com/6GJ6m46PKm
— Daniel Bier (@FT__Dan) April 28, 2021
What this shows is that people ages 18-49, who were rapidly increasing their vaccination rate, took a sudden lurch downward right at the time the J&J pause was announced. Those from 50-64, who were holding steady, also took a big downward dip. Conversely, those under 18, who were approved only for the Pfizer vaccine, showed no change in response.
Is this proof that the J&J pause produced the drop in people getting shots? Of course not, but it's certainly suggestive. Did anything else happen in mid-April that might account for this?
UPDATE: Here's another chart showing vaccination doses by brand:
The sharp decline in J&J doses is obviously part of the reason for the overall drop in vaccinations. However, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also suffer a drop. The Pfizer vaccine, in particular, begins to decline at about the same time the J&J pause is announced.
This complicates the picture, though I'd say the evidence still points toward the J&J pause being responsible for an overall drop in in people getting vaccinated.